In a dimly lit editing bay in Burbank, a film editor who asked to remain anonymous scrolls through footage of a space epic that cost $140 million to produce but earned only $28 million at the global box office. "We knew halfway through production this was going to be a disaster," she confesses, sipping cold coffee. "But the studio kept telling us not to worry—streaming would save us." This conversation, repeated across Hollywood in various forms, reveals a fundamental shift in how success is measured in the film industry. The traditional metrics of box office performance are being supplemented—and sometimes replaced—by streaming viewership numbers that remain largely opaque to the public.
When David Fincher's "Mank" debuted on Netflix in 2020, industry analysts scrambled to understand its impact. The film about "Citizen Kane" screenwriter Herman Mankiewicz received critical acclaim but no traditional box office numbers to measure its success. Instead, Netflix reported that the film was watched by "millions of households" in its first month—a deliberately vague metric that left traditional analysts frustrated. This ambiguity has become the new normal, creating what one studio executive called "the streaming paradox"—films can now be both commercial failures and resounding successes simultaneously.
The economics behind this shift are complex and often counterintuitive. Major studios now routinely greenlight projects with the understanding that theatrical release may serve primarily as marketing for the eventual streaming window. A film that underperforms in theaters but drives subscription growth or reduces churn on a streaming platform can be considered profitable in ways that don't appear on traditional balance sheets. This has created a strange new category of film: the "strategic flop"—movies designed to lose money in theaters while serving larger corporate objectives.
Independent filmmakers are navigating this new landscape with mixed results. While streaming platforms have created new distribution opportunities, they've also disrupted traditional revenue models. "The day-and-date release strategy has been both a blessing and a curse," explains an independent distributor who has worked with A24 and Neon. "We can reach audiences who would never visit an arthouse cinema, but we're also training audiences to wait for streaming rather than paying premium theatrical prices."
The most fascinating development may be the resurrection of genuine box office failures on streaming platforms. Films like "The Last Duel" and "The Northman," which lost significant money during their theatrical runs, found substantial audiences when they hit streaming services months later. This phenomenon has forced studios to reconsider what constitutes a failure and how to evaluate a film's long-term value. The traditional 90-day window between theatrical and home release has collapsed, creating what industry insiders call "the eternal shelf life"—where films can find their audience over years rather than weeks.
Data analytics now play an unprecedented role in determining which films get second chances. Streaming platforms use sophisticated algorithms to identify underserved audience segments and match them with content that failed to connect during initial release. This has led to surprising revivals for genres that struggled theatrically, particularly mid-budget dramas and sophisticated comedies that appeal to older demographics less likely to visit multiplexes.
The human impact of this shift extends beyond boardrooms to creative professionals. Cinematographers, composers, and production designers now find their work evaluated not just by critics and awards bodies but by completion rates and rewatch statistics. "I used to know a film was successful when people quoted lines back to me," says a screenwriter with credits on both streaming and theatrical releases. "Now I know it's successful when the algorithm recommends it to viewers who just finished something completely different."
Looking ahead, industry watchers predict further fragmentation of success metrics. Theatrical performance may become just one data point among many, alongside streaming engagement, social media buzz, and merchandise sales. This multidimensional approach to measuring success could ultimately benefit audiences by allowing more diverse and risky projects to find financial justification. The editor in Burbank puts it succinctly: "We're not making movies for opening weekend anymore. We're making them for forever."
The streaming paradox: why box office flops are finding new life and reshaping Hollywood economics
